From Paper to Pastry | Change is Delicious

I’ve been in the Print Marketing world for over half of my life. (How is that possible!?) I love printing. The process of bringing a vision to life in a tangible way, the creativity behind doing so – both by using techniques and by turning the tiniest budget into fabulousness, and the smell of fresh ink on paper. (Seriously, don’t get me going on that smell. Opening a fresh box of samples is downright heavenly.) While that smell gives me the giddy shoulder wiggle, it’s time for a bit of a change. I’m still digging deep into my creative soul to see what my new world entails, but I’m fairly certain it’ll be paved with sugar and spice.

My mom was a home baker . . . and a phenomenal, caring, amazing, selfless human. The type of person anyone with a right mind would strive to be and I was (am) so proud to be her daughter. A glimpse into the type of woman she was? Despite going through intense chemotherapy and simultaneous radiation treatments immediately after her mastectomy, she brought homemade goodness to her radiology appointments every single day for six weeks. Baking was her way of showing gratitude to everyone helping her fight for her little girls, so her pain was nothing in comparison to a deep down need to say thank you. My sister got the Suzie Homemaker gene, though. Being a tomboy and a total daddy’s girl growing up, I would rather go 4-wheeling than hang out in a kitchen. A funny thing happened, however. Over the years I’ve increasingly adopted my mom’s form of showing love to others through tasty treats. What makes me happy is making others happy. And apparently now involves making their waistbands a bit tighter. Queue Sugar & Nice.

In preparation for my potential next steps in life, I conveniently researched the baking industry for my Microeconomics final last quarter. (Did I mention I’m in school? Two schools, actually, but that’s another life story. If you’re dying to know all things economics pertaining to bakeries as of May 2021, please enjoy this link.) I popped onto IBISWorld to see what’s up in 2022. It still doesn’t cover home bakeries or anything truly entrepreneurial, but the information I found solidified that I’m not insane for pondering an office in my newly remodeled kitchen with a fabulous double oven (swoon). Most notably for my case, even if consumers are a bit more health-conscious and have a tighter grip on their wallet these days, they still need baked deliciousness to get them through this life (or so is my case) and the industry is slowly but surely growing as a result. I know you’re at the edge of the seat for the nitty gritty, so buckle up for a riveting paragraph of statistics! (I joke, but this stuff technically matters. I’ll try to be gentle.)

First of all, bakeries are everywhere. No surprise, the shops in high-traffic areas have that coveted competitive edge. I mean, who hasn’t walked by a bakery and had an immediate need to cram a cupcake down your face? From 2017-2022, bakeries have had an annual growth of 2.2% with an expected revenue of $13.6 billion. Panera Bread, now one of three major operators under the JAB Holding Company, is the only major player with 21.3% of the market share. Why does that matter? Because there’s a trend of larger operators consolidating, which is leading to detrimental ramifications to the little guy, so the little guy is branching off into specialized niches. Those niches have given bakeries an anticipated growth of 1.1% to $14.4 billion through 2027. While the home baking business isn’t called out specifically, this niche trend is a good thing for the even-littler guy who specializes in feeding your face and your soul with that incomparable homemade flare. Despite a 1.2% decline in consumer confidence (which makes sense given the past two years of good times), consumer spending is up 2.3%. Tapping into that, since baked yumminess has a lower price point, consumers are willing to spend more for higher quality. Both the lower price point and homemade niche factor counter the industry threats of low revenue growth, low outlier growth, low performance drivers, and the national minimum wage eating into profits. (Plus, it's worth mentioning that the top opportunities in the industry are high revenue growth and consumer spending, so there’s that.)

Let’s get real, though. If I were to go down this path, I wouldn’t be in it to be a zillionaire. Don’t get me wrong. Money is fun. But, having a content heart in what you do is way more fun. I’ve learned over the past few years that happiness far outweighs a stress-induced paycheck. A little side bonus? Since most bakeries are local shops, word of mouth is their bread and butter. (Mmmmm . . . bread.) Even though I have no desire to own a brick and mortar, I do have a growing reputation in my new hometown. A reputation with a lot of random encouragement to start a business despite never indicating that was a desire of mine. So, maybe the people have spoken, and I should start up that mixer? We’ll see. Until then, I’ll whip up some cookies just because.

REFERENCE

Petridis, A. (2022, September). Bakery Cafes. IBISWorld.

https://my-ibisworld-com.wwcc.idm.oclc.org/us/en/industry-specialized/od4319/about